Part 3 · Chapter 4

Token Supply & Distribution Models

At a Glance

Total supply, emissions, and distribution shape incentives and market behavior. You'll learn common models and how to read allocation charts critically.

Supply ModelsAllocation ChartsVesting Schedules

Who Is This For?

  • Investors evaluating token launches
  • Founders planning allocations and unlocks

Learning Objectives

  1. 01Differentiate fixed vs inflationary supply approaches
  2. 02Read allocation pie charts and vesting schedules
  3. 03Spot red flags in distribution that create sell pressure
Section 1

Supply Models

How many tokens exist—and how that number changes over time—is fundamental to tokenomics.

Explore Supply Models

🔒
Fixed Supply

A hard cap on total tokens that will ever exist. No new tokens are created after the cap is reached.

HOW IT WORKS
Total supply is defined at launch. May be released over time (mining/vesting) but never exceeds the cap.
EXAMPLES
BTC
21 million cap, halving every 4 years
UNI
1 billion total, fully allocated
Various
Fixed supply at launch
Pros
  • + Scarcity narrative
  • + Predictable supply
  • + Simple to understand
  • + No dilution after full release
Cons
  • - No flexibility for incentives
  • - May not fund long-term development
  • - Can concentrate wealth early
Supply Model Quick Reference
ModelSupply Over TimeScarcityBest For
🔒 FixedConstant / DecreasingHighStore of value
📈 InflationaryIncreasingLowSecurity rewards
🔥 DynamicVaries with usageVariableUtility tokens
Section 2

Distribution Plans

Who gets the tokens—and when—determines incentive alignment and potential sell pressure.

Sample Token Allocation

Click on each slice to see details.

100%Total Supply
Team & Founders
20%
Early Investors
15%
Treasury / DAO
25%
Ecosystem / Grants
15%
Liquidity Mining
10%
Public Sale / Airdrop
15%

Vesting Schedule Simulator

Slide to see how tokens unlock over time (48 months).

TGE (Month 0)Month 0Month 48
TEAM UNLOCKED
0%
of 20%
INVESTORS UNLOCKED
0%
of 15%
ECOSYSTEM RELEASED
0%
of 15%
TOTAL CIRCULATING
40%
of 100%
Unlocked: 40%Locked: 60.0%
Common Allocation Buckets
Team/Founders: Usually 15-25%, should have 3-4 year vesting
Investors: Usually 10-20%, 1-2 year vesting typical
Treasury/DAO: Usually 20-30%, governed by token holders
Ecosystem: Usually 10-20%, for grants and development
Section 3

Evaluating Fairness

Learn to spot red flags and understand the true valuation of a token.

Market Cap vs FDV Calculator

FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) shows what the market cap would be if ALL tokens were circulating.

MARKET CAP
$150M
Price x Circulating Supply
FULLY DILUTED VALUATION
$1,500M
Price x Total Supply
FDV / Market Cap Ratio:10.0x
10.0% of tokens are circulating. Moderate dilution ahead. Check unlock schedule.

Red Flag Checker

Check the boxes if these apply to a token you're evaluating.

Risk Assessment:
0/5Looks Reasonable
Watch Out

Common Mistakes & Gotchas

Tokenomics can be confusing. Avoid these common traps:

💰
This token is cheap at $0.001, it's going to $1!
Price per token is meaningless. Check FDV (price x total supply) to understand true valuation. A $0.001 token with 1 trillion supply = $1B FDV.
📅
I'll buy now and sell after the unlock in 2 weeks
Everyone sees the unlock calendar. The dump often happens BEFORE the unlock as holders front-run. Or it's already priced in.
🔥
They're burning tokens so price must go up
Burns reduce supply but don't guarantee price increases. Demand must also exist. Many burns are tiny relative to total supply.
👥
20% team allocation is standard, no big deal
20% can be fine IF it has proper vesting (4+ years, 1-year cliff). Without vesting, the team can dump immediately after launch.

Golden Rule: Always check both the allocation AND the vesting schedule. A “fair” allocation with no vesting is worse than a larger allocation with proper long-term vesting.

Test Yourself

Knowledge Check

Let's see how well you understand tokenomics.

1

What is FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation)?

2

Why use vesting schedules for team tokens?

3

Name one risk of a large unlock cliff:

4

If a token has 10% circulating and 90% locked, what's the risk?

5

What type of supply model does post-EIP-1559 Ethereum use?

Next Steps

Continue learning: “Liquidity Pools & AMMs” to understand how tokens are traded in DeFi
Hands-on practice: Find a token on Messari or Token Terminal, plot its unlock schedule, and note the months with highest emissions